America’s Munitions Shortfall: Drained by Ukraine, Exposed to China – Urgent Steps to Rebuild Readiness

Executive Summary – Key Highlights

Stockpiles Critically Low: U.S. has depleted artillery shells, missiles, and precision munitions supporting Ukraine and Israel, forcing pauses in aid to preserve domestic readiness.
Trump Calls Out Raytheon: President demands defense giants halt stock buybacks and dividends, redirecting billions into production surge.
Venezuela Oil Seizure Raises Stakes: U.S. control of Venezuelan exports disrupts supplies to China and Russia, escalating risk of retaliation and potential conflict.
Wargames Predict Rapid Depletion: In a China-Taiwan scenario, U.S. could exhaust key missiles in days and broader munitions in 3-4 weeks.
Drones as Force Multiplier: Replicator initiative and startups like Anduril are scaling low-cost, attritable drones and loitering munitions to extend combat endurance.
Workforce Bottleneck Solution: UpStream’s MissionBuilt™ and SmartPlant™ deliver pre-vetted, clearance-ready talent pods to accelerate drone and munitions production.
Urgent Action Required: Massive investment in surge capacity, supply chain modernization, strategic stockpiling, and industry prioritization of national security over shareholder returns.

In a fiery post on Truth Social just days ago, President Donald Trump lambasted defense giant Raytheon (now part of RTX) for prioritizing stock buybacks and dividends over ramping up munitions production. He threatened to slash their government contracts unless they “step up” and invest in manufacturing, calling them the “least responsive” to the Pentagon’s needs. This isn’t just tough talk from the Oval Office, it’s a symptom of a deeper crisis: America’s munitions stockpiles are dangerously low, depleted by years of aid to Ukraine, and woefully unprepared for a potential high-intensity conflict, like a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. With recent U.S. seizures of Venezuelan oil tankers cutting off supplies to adversaries like China and Russia, the stakes are higher than ever. Let’s break down the factors at play, the impact on U.S. readiness, and what must be done to refill the armories before it’s too late.

The Ukraine Drain: How Aid Hollowed Out U.S. Stockpiles

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the United States has poured billions in military aid into Kyiv, including over a million rounds of 155mm artillery shells and vast quantities of precision-guided munitions. By mid-2025, the Pentagon was forced to pause shipments of certain air defense missiles and precision weapons to Ukraine due to critically low domestic inventories. Officials cited a “capability review” amid fears that further drawdowns would compromise U.S. forces globally.

This isn’t hyperbole. The U.S. has burned through munitions at a rate far exceeding production capacity, with some stockpiles dipping below safe levels for the first time in decades. Artillery rounds, anti-tank missiles like Javelins, and air-defense systems such as Patriots have been shipped en masse, leaving the Pentagon scrambling to replenish. While early assurances claimed the U.S. wasn’t “running out,” the reality hit hard: aid to Ukraine and Israel has outpaced manufacturing, exposing vulnerabilities in the defense industrial base.

Venezuela’s Oil Seizure: Escalating Tensions with China and Russia

Adding fuel to the fire, the U.S. has recently seized Russian-flagged oil tankers linked to Venezuela, effectively taking control of the country’s oil sales “indefinitely.” Venezuela, a key supplier to China and Russia, saw its exports disrupted in back-to-back operations across the Atlantic. President Trump has demanded that Caracas expel Chinese and Russian influence and partner exclusively with the U.S. on oil deals, a move that could starve Beijing and Moscow of vital resources.

This bold action isn’t just about energy security, it’s a strategic jab at adversaries. China, which relies heavily on imported oil, could face shortages that weaken its military posture. Russia, already strained by its Ukraine war, loses another revenue stream. But it also raises the risk of retaliation, potentially accelerating conflicts where U.S. munitions shortages could prove fatal.

Wargames Warning: Out of Ammo in Weeks Against China

If tensions boil over – say, with China attempting to seize Taiwan – the consequences could be dire. Multiple wargame simulations paint a grim picture: the U.S. could exhaust its stock of long-range anti-ship missiles in as little as three to seven days. Broader munitions, including precision-guided bombs, might last just three to four weeks in a full-scale conflict. One recent House committee report warned that advanced missiles and bombs could be depleted in under a month, leaving American forces vulnerable.

These scenarios assume intense naval and air battles around Taiwan, where China’s proximity gives it logistical advantages. Taiwan itself might hold out for a month before U.S. reinforcements arrive, but without ample munitions, American intervention could falter. Recent Chinese military drills encircling Taiwan underscore the threat, simulating blockades and invasions that would demand rapid U.S. resupply, something our current stockpiles can’t sustain.

The impact on readiness is profound. Depleted armories mean slower response times, reduced deterrence, and higher risks to troops. In a multipolar world with threats from Iran, North Korea, and others, this shortfall erodes America’s global edge, potentially emboldening aggressors.

Beyond Traditional Munitions: Drones as the Next Line of Defense

But what happens when the artillery shells and missiles run dry? The U.S. military isn’t without options – enter drones and autonomous systems, which could serve as attritable, cost-effective alternatives in prolonged conflicts. These “expendable” platforms, including loitering munitions (often called kamikaze drones), swarms of small UAVs, and counter-drone technologies, offer a way to maintain firepower without relying solely on traditional stockpiles. Lessons from Ukraine have shown how cheap, adaptable drones can disrupt high-value targets, from tanks to ships, at a fraction of the cost of precision-guided missiles.

The Pentagon is betting big on this shift. The Replicator initiative aims to deploy thousands of low-cost, autonomous drones rapidly, creating overwhelming swarms that could compensate for munitions shortages in scenarios like a Taiwan Strait conflict. In fiscal year 2026, the DoD is allocating millions for unmanned systems, including $75 million for over 700 loitering munitions from companies like Anduril and Teledyne-FLIR. A recent $1 billion funding opportunity has opened doors for U.S. drone startups, emphasizing attritable designs that prioritize quantity and affordability over survivability.

Leading the charge are innovative startups reshaping the defense landscape. Anduril Industries, known for its autonomous systems, is ramping up production at new facilities like Arsenal-1 in Ohio, focusing on drones and aerial weapons to “rebuild the arsenal” with AI-driven tech. Skydio, valued at $2.5 billion, produces military-grade drones with advanced autonomy, backed by over $740 million in venture funding. Other players like Shield AI and Teal Drones are developing AI-piloted systems and loitering munitions, addressing the “math of war” by providing scalable, low-cost alternatives to expensive missiles. These technologies could extend U.S. endurance in high-intensity fights, buying time until traditional munitions are replenished.

Rebuilding the Arsenal: What Needs to Happen Now

The good news? Efforts are underway, but they’re not enough…yet. The Pentagon is tripling production of Patriot missiles, aiming to boost output from 600 to 2,000 annually, pending congressional approval. The Army has invested $635 million in a new artillery ammunition facility to modernize production lines. Contracts worth billions are replenishing stocks drained by Ukraine aid, with diversification of suppliers to avoid bottlenecks.

To truly catch up, we need:

Massive Investment in Surge Capacity: Shift from “just-in-time” manufacturing to wartime-scale production. Trump’s crackdown on defense firms’ payouts could redirect billions toward factories and R&D.
Diversify and Modernize Supply Chains: Reduce reliance on single suppliers for critical components like 155mm shells. Incorporate automation and AI to speed up output.
Stockpile Strategically: Prioritize munitions for high-threat scenarios, like anti-ship missiles for the Pacific. Replenishment timelines for preferred munitions can exceed three years—unacceptable in today’s volatile world.
Congressional and Industry Buy-In: Lawmakers must approve funding hikes, while companies like Raytheon heed Trump’s warnings and prioritize national security over shareholder returns.
Build a Resilient Workforce: Scaling production requires skilled, cleared talent – enter solutions like UpStream Workforce Solutions. Their MissionBuilt™ program delivers pre-vetted, clearance-eligible pods of engineers and specialists tailored for aerospace, defense, and space programs, accelerating drone and munitions development. Paired with SmartPlant™, which focuses on manufacturing expertise in robotics, AI, and automation, UpStream addresses workforce bottlenecks head-on, enabling faster innovation and production for DoD priorities like the Replicator initiative. In an era where talent shortages could delay readiness, partnering with UpStream ensures the human element keeps pace with technological demands.

The U.S. industrial base isn’t primed for great-power conflict, but with decisive action, we can turn the tide. Trump’s spotlight on this issue is a wake-up call: America must rebuild its munitions muscle to deter threats and protect its interests. Failing to do so isn’t just risky, it’s an invitation to disaster.